Group Analysis

The following tables will provide a view of how the collective group of participants have chosen to represent their teams.

The logic is fairly simple: we look at the confidence level assigned to each of teams from each of the players and construct a chart representing our matchups. The idea being that an individual's ability to make a prediction is limited, but as the group size increases, so does the chance that the average prediction of the group is accurate.

Although this principle cannot be directly applied to sports games as there is simply a 50/50 chance of any one outcome, the data should still prove interesting at very least.

Analysis By Bowl
Confidence Number of confidence points assigned to this team by the entire group.
Times Picked Total number of people picking this team to win.
Check Represents what the group feels is the best pick.

Bowl Name Team A Confidence Team B Confidence Team A Times Picked Team B Times Picked
Myrtle Beach Bowl Check Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) 327 Ohio Bobcats (9-3) 317 Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) 13 Check Ohio Bobcats (9-3) 16
New Orleans Bowl Check Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) 411 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) 219 Check Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) 19 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) 10
Cure Bowl Check Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5) 669 Miami (OH) RedHawks (11-2) 128 Check Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5) 23 Miami (OH) RedHawks (11-2) 6
New Mexico Bowl Check New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) 701 Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) 13 Check New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) 28 Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) 1
LA Bowl Boise State Broncos (8-5) 240 Check UCLA Bruins (7-5) 406 Boise State Broncos (8-5) 12 Check UCLA Bruins (7-5) 17
Independence Bowl California Golden Bears (6-6) 90 Check Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) 462 California Golden Bears (6-6) 5 Check Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) 24
Famous Toastery Bowl Check Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) 257 Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6) 254 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) 14 Check Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6) 15
Frisco Bowl Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) 10 Check UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) 1020 Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) 1 Check UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) 28
Boca Raton Bowl South Florida Bulls (6-6) 222 Check Syracuse Orange (6-6) 343 South Florida Bulls (6-6) 11 Check Syracuse Orange (6-6) 18
Gasparilla Bowl Check UCF Knights (6-6) 466 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) 181 Check UCF Knights (6-6) 21 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) 8
Birmingham Bowl Duke Blue Devils (7-5) 123 Check Troy Trojans (11-2) 749 Duke Blue Devils (7-5) 4 Check Troy Trojans (11-2) 25
Camellia Bowl Check Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) 297 Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6) 166 Check Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) 19 Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6) 10
Armed Forces Bowl Check James Madison Dukes (11-1) 547 Air Force Falcons (8-4) 111 Check James Madison Dukes (11-1) 24 Air Force Falcons (8-4) 5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Georgia State Panthers (6-6) 38 Check Utah State Aggies (6-6) 445 Georgia State Panthers (6-6) 2 Check Utah State Aggies (6-6) 27
68 Ventures Bowl Check South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) 862 Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) 115 Check South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) 25 Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) 4
Las Vegas Bowl Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) 35 Check Utah Utes (8-4) 828 Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) 2 Check Utah Utes (8-4) 27
Hawaii Bowl Check San Jose State Spartans (7-5) 750 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-5) 107 Check San Jose State Spartans (7-5) 24 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-5) 5
Quick Lane Bowl Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) 168 Check Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7) 413 Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) 9 Check Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7) 20
First Responder Bowl Check Texas State Bobcats (7-5) 494 Rice Owls (6-6) 67 Check Texas State Bobcats (7-5) 23 Rice Owls (6-6) 6
Guaranteed Rate Bowl Check Kansas Jayhawks (8-4) 887 UNLV Rebels (9-4) 22 Check Kansas Jayhawks (8-4) 28 UNLV Rebels (9-4) 1
Military Bowl Tulane Green Wave (11-2) 267 Check Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) 364 Tulane Green Wave (11-2) 14 Check Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) 15
Duke's Mayo Bowl Check West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) 405 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) 149 Check West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) 18 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) 11
Holiday Bowl USC Trojans (7-5) 55 Check No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) 697 USC Trojans (7-5) 2 Check No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) 27
Texas Bowl Check No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4) 323 Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) 106 Check No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4) 21 Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) 8
Fenway Bowl Check No. 24 SMU Mustangs (11-2) 861 Boston College Eagles (6-6) 0 Check No. 24 SMU Mustangs (11-2) 29 Boston College Eagles (6-6) 0
Pinstripe Bowl Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) 82 Check Miami (FL) Hurricanes (7-5) 338 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) 9 Check Miami (FL) Hurricanes (7-5) 20
Pop-Tarts Bowl Check No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) 296 No. 18 NC State Wolfpack (9-3) 135 Check No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) 20 No. 18 NC State Wolfpack (9-3) 9
Alamo Bowl Check No. 14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) 234 No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) 207 Check No. 14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) 18 No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) 11
Gator Bowl Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) 20 Check No. 22 Clemson Tigers (8-4) 543 Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) 2 Check No. 22 Clemson Tigers (8-4) 27
Sun Bowl No. 19 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) 89 Check No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) 570 No. 19 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) 5 Check No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) 24
Liberty Bowl Memphis Tigers (9-3) 59 Check Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) 499 Memphis Tigers (9-3) 5 Check Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) 24
Cotton Bowl Classic Missouri Tigers 111 Check Ohio State Buckeyes 309 Missouri Tigers 12 Check Ohio State Buckeyes 17
Peach Bowl Ole Miss Rebels 138 Check Penn State Nittany Lions 269 Ole Miss Rebels 14 Check Penn State Nittany Lions 15
Music City Bowl Maryland Terrapins (7-5) 65 Check Auburn Tigers (6-6) 286 Maryland Terrapins (7-5) 5 Check Auburn Tigers (6-6) 24
Orange Bowl Check Georgia Bulldogs 876 Florida State Seminoles 0 Check Georgia Bulldogs 29 Florida State Seminoles 0
Arizona Bowl Toledo Rockets (11-2) 113 Check Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) 194 Toledo Rockets (11-2) 10 Check Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) 19
ReliaQuest Bowl Check No. 13 LSU Tigers (9-3) 748 Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) 0 Check No. 13 LSU Tigers (9-3) 29 Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) 0
Citrus Bowl Check No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) 445 No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) 66 Check No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) 22 No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) 7
Fiesta Bowl Liberty Flames 0 Check Oregon Ducks 977 Liberty Flames 0 Check Oregon Ducks 29
Rose Bowl Alabama Crimson Tide 127 Check Michigan Wolverines 168 Alabama Crimson Tide 13 Check Michigan Wolverines 16
Sugar Bowl Check Texas Longhorns 363 Washington Huskies 64 Check Texas Longhorns 24 Washington Huskies 5
National Championship Check Alabama / Michigan 357 Texas / Washington 252 Check Alabama / Michigan 17 Texas / Washington 12


Analysis By Team
Total Confidence Number of confidence points assigned to this team by the entire group.
Avg Confidence Total confidence points divided by total players in group.
Avg Win Confidence Total confidence points divided by number of people in group picking team to win.
Deviation Difference of average win confidence to average group confidence.

Rank Team Total Confidence Avg Confidence Avg Win Confidence Deviation Selected to Win Selected to Lose
1 UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) 1020 (83.74%) 35.17 (83.74%) 36.43 (86.74%) 1.26 28 (96.55%) 1 (3.45%)
2 Oregon Ducks 977 (80.21%) 33.69 (80.21%) 33.69 (80.21%) 0.00 29 (100.00%) 0 (0.00%)
3 Kansas Jayhawks (8-4) 887 (72.82%) 30.59 (72.83%) 31.68 (75.43%) 1.09 28 (96.55%) 1 (3.45%)
4 Georgia Bulldogs 876 (71.92%) 30.21 (71.93%) 30.21 (71.93%) 0.00 29 (100.00%) 0 (0.00%)
5 South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) 862 (70.77%) 29.72 (70.76%) 34.48 (82.10%) 4.76 25 (86.21%) 4 (13.79%)
6 No. 24 SMU Mustangs (11-2) 861 (70.69%) 29.69 (70.69%) 29.69 (70.69%) 0.00 29 (100.00%) 0 (0.00%)
7 Utah Utes (8-4) 828 (67.98%) 28.55 (67.98%) 30.67 (73.02%) 2.12 27 (93.10%) 2 (6.90%)
8 San Jose State Spartans (7-5) 750 (61.58%) 25.86 (61.57%) 31.25 (74.40%) 5.39 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
9 Troy Trojans (11-2) 749 (61.49%) 25.83 (61.50%) 29.96 (71.33%) 4.13 25 (86.21%) 4 (13.79%)
10 No. 13 LSU Tigers (9-3) 748 (61.41%) 25.79 (61.40%) 25.79 (61.40%) 0.00 29 (100.00%) 0 (0.00%)
11 New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) 701 (57.55%) 24.17 (57.55%) 25.04 (59.62%) 0.87 28 (96.55%) 1 (3.45%)
12 No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) 697 (57.22%) 24.03 (57.21%) 25.81 (61.45%) 1.78 27 (93.10%) 2 (6.90%)
13 Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5) 669 (54.93%) 23.07 (54.93%) 29.09 (69.26%) 6.02 23 (79.31%) 6 (20.69%)
14 No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) 570 (46.80%) 19.66 (46.81%) 23.75 (56.55%) 4.09 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
15 James Madison Dukes (11-1) 547 (44.91%) 18.86 (44.90%) 22.79 (54.26%) 3.93 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
16 No. 22 Clemson Tigers (8-4) 543 (44.58%) 18.72 (44.57%) 20.11 (47.88%) 1.39 27 (93.10%) 2 (6.90%)
17 Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) 499 (40.97%) 17.21 (40.98%) 20.79 (49.50%) 3.58 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
18 Texas State Bobcats (7-5) 494 (40.56%) 17.03 (40.55%) 21.48 (51.14%) 4.45 23 (79.31%) 6 (20.69%)
19 UCF Knights (6-6) 466 (38.26%) 16.07 (38.26%) 22.19 (52.83%) 6.12 21 (72.41%) 8 (27.59%)
20 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) 462 (37.93%) 15.93 (37.93%) 19.25 (45.83%) 3.32 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
21 Utah State Aggies (6-6) 445 (36.54%) 15.34 (36.52%) 16.48 (39.24%) 1.14 27 (93.10%) 2 (6.90%)
22 No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) 445 (36.54%) 15.34 (36.52%) 20.23 (48.17%) 4.89 22 (75.86%) 7 (24.14%)
23 Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7) 413 (33.91%) 14.24 (33.90%) 20.65 (49.17%) 6.41 20 (68.97%) 9 (31.03%)
24 Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) 411 (33.74%) 14.17 (33.74%) 21.63 (51.50%) 7.46 19 (65.52%) 10 (34.48%)
25 UCLA Bruins (7-5) 406 (33.33%) 14.00 (33.33%) 23.88 (56.86%) 9.88 17 (58.62%) 12 (41.38%)
26 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) 405 (33.25%) 13.97 (33.26%) 22.50 (53.57%) 8.53 18 (62.07%) 11 (37.93%)
27 Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) 364 (29.89%) 12.55 (29.88%) 24.27 (57.79%) 11.72 15 (51.72%) 14 (48.28%)
28 Texas Longhorns 363 (29.80%) 12.52 (29.81%) 15.13 (36.02%) 2.61 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
29 Alabama / Michigan 357 (29.31%) 12.31 (29.31%) 21.00 (50.00%) 8.69 17 (58.62%) 12 (41.38%)
30 Syracuse Orange (6-6) 343 (28.16%) 11.83 (28.17%) 19.06 (45.38%) 7.23 18 (62.07%) 11 (37.93%)
31 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (7-5) 338 (27.75%) 11.66 (27.76%) 16.90 (40.24%) 5.24 20 (68.97%) 9 (31.03%)
32 Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) 327 (26.85%) 11.28 (26.86%) 25.15 (59.88%) 13.87 13 (44.83%) 16 (55.17%)
33 No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4) 323 (26.52%) 11.14 (26.52%) 15.38 (36.62%) 4.24 21 (72.41%) 8 (27.59%)
34 Ohio Bobcats (9-3) 317 (26.03%) 10.93 (26.02%) 19.81 (47.17%) 8.88 16 (55.17%) 13 (44.83%)
35 Ohio State Buckeyes 309 (25.37%) 10.66 (25.38%) 18.18 (43.29%) 7.52 17 (58.62%) 12 (41.38%)
36 Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) 297 (24.38%) 10.24 (24.38%) 15.63 (37.21%) 5.39 19 (65.52%) 10 (34.48%)
37 No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) 296 (24.30%) 10.21 (24.31%) 14.80 (35.24%) 4.59 20 (68.97%) 9 (31.03%)
38 Auburn Tigers (6-6) 286 (23.48%) 9.86 (23.48%) 11.92 (28.38%) 2.06 24 (82.76%) 5 (17.24%)
39 Penn State Nittany Lions 269 (22.09%) 9.28 (22.10%) 17.93 (42.69%) 8.65 15 (51.72%) 14 (48.28%)
40 Tulane Green Wave (11-2) 267 (21.92%) 9.21 (21.93%) 19.07 (45.40%) 9.86 14 (48.28%) 15 (51.72%)
41 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) 257 (21.10%) 8.86 (21.10%) 18.36 (43.71%) 9.50 14 (48.28%) 15 (51.72%)
42 Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6) 254 (20.85%) 8.76 (20.86%) 16.93 (40.31%) 8.17 15 (51.72%) 14 (48.28%)
43 Texas / Washington 252 (20.69%) 8.69 (20.69%) 21.00 (50.00%) 12.31 12 (41.38%) 17 (58.62%)
44 Boise State Broncos (8-5) 240 (19.70%) 8.28 (19.71%) 20.00 (47.62%) 11.72 12 (41.38%) 17 (58.62%)
45 No. 14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) 234 (19.21%) 8.07 (19.21%) 13.00 (30.95%) 4.93 18 (62.07%) 11 (37.93%)
46 South Florida Bulls (6-6) 222 (18.23%) 7.66 (18.24%) 20.18 (48.05%) 12.52 11 (37.93%) 18 (62.07%)
47 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (6-6) 219 (17.98%) 7.55 (17.98%) 21.90 (52.14%) 14.35 10 (34.48%) 19 (65.52%)
48 No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) 207 (17.00%) 7.14 (17.00%) 18.82 (44.81%) 11.68 11 (37.93%) 18 (62.07%)
49 Wyoming Cowboys (8-4) 194 (15.93%) 6.69 (15.93%) 10.21 (24.31%) 3.52 19 (65.52%) 10 (34.48%)
50 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) 181 (14.86%) 6.24 (14.86%) 22.63 (53.88%) 16.39 8 (27.59%) 21 (72.41%)
51 Michigan Wolverines 168 (13.79%) 5.79 (13.79%) 10.50 (25.00%) 4.71 16 (55.17%) 13 (44.83%)
52 Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) 168 (13.79%) 5.79 (13.79%) 18.67 (44.45%) 12.88 9 (31.03%) 20 (68.97%)
53 Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6) 166 (13.63%) 5.72 (13.62%) 16.60 (39.52%) 10.88 10 (34.48%) 19 (65.52%)
54 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) 149 (12.23%) 5.14 (12.24%) 13.55 (32.26%) 8.41 11 (37.93%) 18 (62.07%)
55 Ole Miss Rebels 138 (11.33%) 4.76 (11.33%) 9.86 (23.48%) 5.10 14 (48.28%) 15 (51.72%)
56 No. 18 NC State Wolfpack (9-3) 135 (11.08%) 4.66 (11.10%) 15.00 (35.71%) 10.34 9 (31.03%) 20 (68.97%)
57 Miami (OH) RedHawks (11-2) 128 (10.51%) 4.41 (10.50%) 21.33 (50.79%) 16.92 6 (20.69%) 23 (79.31%)
58 Alabama Crimson Tide 127 (10.43%) 4.38 (10.43%) 9.77 (23.26%) 5.39 13 (44.83%) 16 (55.17%)
59 Duke Blue Devils (7-5) 123 (10.10%) 4.24 (10.10%) 30.75 (73.21%) 26.51 4 (13.79%) 25 (86.21%)
60 Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6) 115 (9.44%) 3.97 (9.45%) 28.75 (68.45%) 24.78 4 (13.79%) 25 (86.21%)
61 Toledo Rockets (11-2) 113 (9.28%) 3.90 (9.29%) 11.30 (26.90%) 7.40 10 (34.48%) 19 (65.52%)
62 Missouri Tigers 111 (9.11%) 3.83 (9.12%) 9.25 (22.02%) 5.42 12 (41.38%) 17 (58.62%)
63 Air Force Falcons (8-4) 111 (9.11%) 3.83 (9.12%) 22.20 (52.86%) 18.37 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
64 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-5) 107 (8.78%) 3.69 (8.79%) 21.40 (50.95%) 17.71 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
65 Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) 106 (8.70%) 3.66 (8.71%) 13.25 (31.55%) 9.59 8 (27.59%) 21 (72.41%)
66 California Golden Bears (6-6) 90 (7.39%) 3.10 (7.38%) 18.00 (42.86%) 14.90 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
67 No. 19 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) 89 (7.31%) 3.07 (7.31%) 17.80 (42.38%) 14.73 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
68 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) 82 (6.73%) 2.83 (6.74%) 9.11 (21.69%) 6.28 9 (31.03%) 20 (68.97%)
69 Rice Owls (6-6) 67 (5.50%) 2.31 (5.50%) 11.17 (26.60%) 8.86 6 (20.69%) 23 (79.31%)
70 No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) 66 (5.42%) 2.28 (5.43%) 9.43 (22.45%) 7.15 7 (24.14%) 22 (75.86%)
71 Maryland Terrapins (7-5) 65 (5.34%) 2.24 (5.33%) 13.00 (30.95%) 10.76 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
72 Washington Huskies 64 (5.25%) 2.21 (5.26%) 12.80 (30.48%) 10.59 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
73 Memphis Tigers (9-3) 59 (4.84%) 2.03 (4.83%) 11.80 (28.10%) 9.77 5 (17.24%) 24 (82.76%)
74 USC Trojans (7-5) 55 (4.52%) 1.90 (4.52%) 27.50 (65.48%) 25.60 2 (6.90%) 27 (93.10%)
75 Georgia State Panthers (6-6) 38 (3.12%) 1.31 (3.12%) 19.00 (45.24%) 17.69 2 (6.90%) 27 (93.10%)
76 Northwestern Wildcats (7-5) 35 (2.87%) 1.21 (2.88%) 17.50 (41.67%) 16.29 2 (6.90%) 27 (93.10%)
77 UNLV Rebels (9-4) 22 (1.81%) 0.76 (1.81%) 22.00 (52.38%) 21.24 1 (3.45%) 28 (96.55%)
78 Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) 20 (1.64%) 0.69 (1.64%) 10.00 (23.81%) 9.31 2 (6.90%) 27 (93.10%)
79 Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) 13 (1.07%) 0.45 (1.07%) 13.00 (30.95%) 12.55 1 (3.45%) 28 (96.55%)
80 Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6) 10 (0.82%) 0.34 (0.81%) 10.00 (23.81%) 9.66 1 (3.45%) 28 (96.55%)
81 Boston College Eagles (6-6) 0 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 0 (0.00%) 0 (100.00%)
82 Florida State Seminoles 0 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 0 (0.00%) 0 (100.00%)
83 Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) 0 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 0 (0.00%) 0 (100.00%)
84 Liberty Flames 0 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 (0.00%) 0.00 0 (0.00%) 0 (100.00%)